My biggest concern is not that fertility rate is low/population decline is happening, it’s that it’s happening way too quickly for society to be able to handle it.
We’re talking like 4 old people per child (estimated number). Not only would it be a massive strain on the economy to have so many elderly people/retirees to take care of, older people will also have a highly disproportionate account of political power due to their relative abundance. If it’s already such a big deal that boomers were twisting the political landscape for their gain, I shudder to think what would happen at this larger and longer scale.
All of this is going to be a breeding ground for misogyny and right-wing ideology when people start thinking that it’s [opposite gender]'s fault that they’re not living as well as they were promised by the previous generation. We’ve already seen it in South Korea, and we’re seeing it now with the rise of isolation and inceldom.
Plus, without younger people to take up the mantle, many industries that we rely on will need to downsize, and a lot of institutional knowledge will be lost. Many roles that require a “master-to-apprentice” style of learning will be lost and will be unable to recover, even if the population started growing again.
Fox News has the wrong take here, as it is wont to have. But we genuinely should be really concerned that birth rates across all developed countries are this low below replacement rate and are still dropping
If there’s only one working person for every four old people, and those four old people each need one or two caretakers a piece then there’s not enough workers to go around.
And that doesn’t count every other job in society that needs done to support the caretakers, like growing food and fixing toilets.
I don’t think most jobs need doing. I don’t want any jobs at all period.
But if you have four old people who need four workers to care for them and there’s only one worker to go around no amount of firing social media managers and insurance adjusters is gonna fix it.
This isn’t an economic problem, it’s a demographic one. Which is why it’s a problem across the world and not just in capitalist nations. (And is in fact worst in China due to the effects of the one child policy.)
Okay, let’s assume it’s 10-1. How many other people, in a perfectly efficient system, would it take to provide a decent quality of life for that caretaker and the 10 elderly people? Growing and transporting food, building and maintaining infrastructure, researching and providing medical care, producing electricity and clean water. Nothing extra.
What term would you use instead of “funding”? Even if we ditch capitalism, as we should, doctors et al still need to get paid, and hospitals still need money to operate (assuming we got rid of any for-profit healthcare). We wouldn’t be doing this with a barter system, right?
What’s it like to consider reality a distant and off-putting concept but an imaginary conception of society totally familiar and so doable it’s not even worth mentioning the process to get to it?
Capitalism has been around for a couple of hundred years. During most of that time fertility rates were high in pretty much every capitalist society. This changed within a generation of contraceptives becoming widely available, even in those capitalist societies most strongly influenced by socialism, with low poverty rates and where generally everyone can easily afford to have children. I think we can make a fair guess which factor was more important, between capitalism and contraception.
Humans, and mammals in general, never developed an innate desire to reproduce. It was never necessary in an evolutionary sense, since fucking led to reproduction. There hasn’t been enough time for humans as a species to adapt to the new reality, and we can probably develop new contraceptive technology faster than any resistance to them can evolve (one would expect, for example, allergies to the contraceptive pill or condoms to start appearing and/or increasing in frequency among the population).
The more impactful evolution might be of a sociological nature. Cultures and subcultures that encourage large families should be expected to begin proliferating globally. We have seen some beginnings of this happening, such as the Haredim in Israel and ultraconservative communities elsewhere.
just let us oldies die when we want ffs. At 60, i hope to have enough $ left to fly to Switzerland and do a Daniel Kahnerman when i feel iv’e had enough.
Encouraging more teen pregnancies seems like it might cause problems for the education system, but that’s okay; Fox News loves the uneducated.
Personally I suspect that the best cure for a low fertility rate is a good 60 to 100 years of declining population size. It’s worth a try anyway.
My biggest concern is not that fertility rate is low/population decline is happening, it’s that it’s happening way too quickly for society to be able to handle it.
We’re talking like 4 old people per child (estimated number). Not only would it be a massive strain on the economy to have so many elderly people/retirees to take care of, older people will also have a highly disproportionate account of political power due to their relative abundance. If it’s already such a big deal that boomers were twisting the political landscape for their gain, I shudder to think what would happen at this larger and longer scale.
All of this is going to be a breeding ground for misogyny and right-wing ideology when people start thinking that it’s [opposite gender]'s fault that they’re not living as well as they were promised by the previous generation. We’ve already seen it in South Korea, and we’re seeing it now with the rise of isolation and inceldom.
Plus, without younger people to take up the mantle, many industries that we rely on will need to downsize, and a lot of institutional knowledge will be lost. Many roles that require a “master-to-apprentice” style of learning will be lost and will be unable to recover, even if the population started growing again.
Fox News has the wrong take here, as it is wont to have. But we genuinely should be really concerned that birth rates across all developed countries are this low below replacement rate and are still dropping
deleted by creator
Even without capitalism the math doesn’t math.
If there’s only one working person for every four old people, and those four old people each need one or two caretakers a piece then there’s not enough workers to go around.
And that doesn’t count every other job in society that needs done to support the caretakers, like growing food and fixing toilets.
deleted by creator
I don’t think most jobs need doing. I don’t want any jobs at all period.
But if you have four old people who need four workers to care for them and there’s only one worker to go around no amount of firing social media managers and insurance adjusters is gonna fix it.
This isn’t an economic problem, it’s a demographic one. Which is why it’s a problem across the world and not just in capitalist nations. (And is in fact worst in China due to the effects of the one child policy.)
deleted by creator
Okay, let’s assume it’s 10-1. How many other people, in a perfectly efficient system, would it take to provide a decent quality of life for that caretaker and the 10 elderly people? Growing and transporting food, building and maintaining infrastructure, researching and providing medical care, producing electricity and clean water. Nothing extra.
And how many people to support these people.
Probably more than we’d have available to work.
There’s a reason China started taxing condoms.
deleted by creator
Are you advocating for not treating the sick whatsoever, or are you assuming total governmental funding for treating the sick?
deleted by creator
What term would you use instead of “funding”? Even if we ditch capitalism, as we should, doctors et al still need to get paid, and hospitals still need money to operate (assuming we got rid of any for-profit healthcare). We wouldn’t be doing this with a barter system, right?
deleted by creator
What’s it like to consider reality a distant and off-putting concept but an imaginary conception of society totally familiar and so doable it’s not even worth mentioning the process to get to it?
deleted by creator
Capitalism has been around for a couple of hundred years. During most of that time fertility rates were high in pretty much every capitalist society. This changed within a generation of contraceptives becoming widely available, even in those capitalist societies most strongly influenced by socialism, with low poverty rates and where generally everyone can easily afford to have children. I think we can make a fair guess which factor was more important, between capitalism and contraception.
Humans, and mammals in general, never developed an innate desire to reproduce. It was never necessary in an evolutionary sense, since fucking led to reproduction. There hasn’t been enough time for humans as a species to adapt to the new reality, and we can probably develop new contraceptive technology faster than any resistance to them can evolve (one would expect, for example, allergies to the contraceptive pill or condoms to start appearing and/or increasing in frequency among the population).
The more impactful evolution might be of a sociological nature. Cultures and subcultures that encourage large families should be expected to begin proliferating globally. We have seen some beginnings of this happening, such as the Haredim in Israel and ultraconservative communities elsewhere.
just let us oldies die when we want ffs. At 60, i hope to have enough $ left to fly to Switzerland and do a Daniel Kahnerman when i feel iv’e had enough.