for me RAM is a perfected technology, new buses will come, more speed, but it will fundamentally be the same manufacturing process, same materials. The prospect is that LLMs will keep getting larger, more RAM will be required, and the prices will keep getting higher, or along the curve, while the demand will keep up with it because everything has RAM in it. Do you see a point in the future where the industry forks out of this, and there’s an alternative where the end user is not affected as much from the demand of this resource?
Once Chinese companies ramp up production, there’s going to be cheap RAM again. Also, the bubble will pop eventually.
I’d say it’s certainly possible for the economics and business strategy to shift in a manner where consumers get a much worse deal like this indefinitely. But it’s really haad to say if it’s actually going to play out that way or we experience a return to the previous equilibrium
The RAM prices will come down when “AI” finally implodes and the tech bros have finished extracting every last bit of venture capital from idiots.
1 of 2 things will need to happen for the shortage to be resolved.
- A new fabrication will need to be brought online or
- The companies that have purchased the fabrication time cancel their order because they go bust.
I believe 2 will happen before 1 because 1 will take several years to happen.
Agreed. They are building new factories now that will come online in several years
CXMT is already making RAM.
https://www.cxmt.com/en/product.html
https://www.techspot.com/review/3089-ddr5-made-in-china/
Might have to sneak it through Canada.
The Chinese could do some coordinated push to take marketshare if they have state backing and are willing to accept medium term losses.
But then every western government will not allow the import of those products because of “national security”
ChatGPT will run out of money April 2027.
Also, more adaptation to Chinese-made RAM. The difference is negligible.
I can’t wait till I can purchase China RAM! 👌
When the AI bubble pops RAM prices will fall back, but they’ll never be as low as they were before AI. AI is going nowhere, it’s not quite like the Internet but it’s still got its uses. So I think you’ll see RAM prices fluctuate with an overall positive slope after the bubble pops.
The days of cheap RAM are over for the most part.
