Everybody knows about the backstory, there was a civil war, KMT fled to Taiwan creating two Chinas sort of, maybe, neither recognises the other, whole thing. ROC (Taiwan) ended up transitioning from military rule to a multi-party democracy, while the PRC (mainland China) didn’t do that (they did reform economically, “socialism with Chinese characteristics” and all that, but still a one-party state, not a multi-party democracy). The status quo right now is that Taiwan is in the grey area of statehood where they function pretty much independently but aren’t properly recognised, and both sides of the strait are feeling pretty tense right now.
Taiwan’s stance on the issue is that they would like to remain politically and economically independent of mainland China, retaining their multi-party democracy, political connections to its allies, economic trade connections, etc. Also, a majority of the people in Taiwan do not support reunification with China.
China’s stance on the issue is that Taiwan should be reunified with the mainland at all costs, ideally peacefully, but war is not ruled out. They argue that Taiwan was unfairly separated from the mainland by imperial powers in their “century of humiliation”. Strategically, taking Taiwan would be beneficial to China as they would have better control of the sea.
Is it even possible for both sides to agree to a peaceful solution? Personally, I can only see two ways this could go about that has the consent of both parties. One, a reformist leader takes power in the mainland and gives up on Taiwan, and the two exist as separate independent nations. Or two, the mainland gets a super-reformist leader that transitions the mainland to a multi-party democracy, and maybe then reunification could be on the table, with Taiwan keeping an autonomous status given the large cultural difference (similar to Hong Kong or Macau’s current status). Both options are, unfortunately, very unlikely to occur in the near future.
A third option (?) would be a pseudo-unification, where Taiwan becomes a recognised country, but there can be free movement of people between the mainland and Taiwan, free trade, that sort of stuff (sort of like the EU? Maybe?). Not sure if the PRC would accept that.
What are your thoughts on a peaceful solution to the crisis that both sides could agree on?
edit: Damn there are crazies in both ends of the arguments. I really don’t think giving Taiwan nukes would help solve the problem.
I think the current best solution, looking at the more reasonable and realistic comments, seems to be to maintain the status quo, at least until both sides of the strait are able to come into some sort of agreement (which seems to be worlds away right now given their current very opposing stances on the issue)
Taiwan need to stop claiming they are the legitimate government of China.
China need to recognise that Taiwan isn’t part of China anymore.
Neither will happen.
its kinda wierd how they claim it, when initially they were just as brutal as the ccp early days.
just as brutal
Theres a difference between brutality in response to millenia of oppression and brutality against anyone who might not want to continue that oppression.
Thats not to say the CPC was some perfectly just machine, but the two are qualitatively different. Would you say the French og revolutionaries were just as brutal as the bourbons?
Taiwan would stop claiming it tomorrow officially, but China would see that as a declaration of independence and justification to invade.
While I don’t claim to be an expert on the subject, the only peaceful outcome I can see is actually just a continuation of the status quo, where mainland China uses “reunification” messaging as little more than a show of strength and patriotic political rhetoric, and where the Western world continues to treat Taiwan’s independence with “strategic ambiguity” while hinting to China that any attempt to take Taiwan will be met with a large scale Western response from the US and allies.
I do think that the West wants Russia’s attempted invasion of Ukraine to be a sign of what China should expect if they were to attempt to annex Taiwan. It won’t be easy, it’ll throw trade and supply chains into absolute chaos, and it’ll be met with harsh economic sanctions and large weapons deals at the very least. The West wants China to feel that there is very little upside to attacking Taiwan, and that it’s much more reasonable to maintain the status quo (though arguably, tariffs and trade wars needlessly remove some of the US’s economic leverage over China).
Rhetoric aside, how much chaos and bloodshed is China really willing to tolerate just for the pyrric victory of finishing what Mao started almost a century ago?
I think the main hope for peace is that Xi and the ruling members of the CCP feel that it’s in their personal best interest to talk a big game while doing the bare minimum to disrupt the systems that they currently benefit from.
China should accept Taiwans sovereignty as a separate Chinese country, and stop being such a little bitch. The end.
Lets be realistic. If the confederates ran away to Key West after the civil war, would the US accept a hostile state, backed by a hostile super-power, claiming to be the government of all of USA right off their coast?
No? But then Taiwan doesn’t actually seriously maintain this anymore. It’s all a front. They have to say this because repudiating the ‘one China’ system could be interpreted as a declaration of independence, which would be interpreted as a green light for China to invade.
They did even worse, they let them stay!
It’s not even key west it’s more like they ran away to Maine
Not sure why you’re copping some hate, but your analogy is pretty accurate.
If the Confederates managed to hold out for 60 years, reformed, democratised and abandoned their past and wanted to renounce their claim to the USA and become their own independent state under their own identity - I would support them in that.
Albeit even then comparison isn’t quite right because Taiwan is closer to being the Union in this analogy, and the PRC the Confederates. It would be more like if the Union lost and fled to a safepost.
Taiwan is closer to being the Union in this analogy
mmyes, the defeated right-wing nationalist warlordists are the Union in this analogy. very good.
i would like to learn your secret: how do you become so informed on things you know nothing about?
mmyes, the defeated right-wing nationalist warlordists are the Union in this analogy. very good.
The comparison here is rooted who is the original compared to the two, not their ideologies. So in that sense, Taiwan would be the Union and Confederates would be the PRC.
Libs don’t actually care about the matter, they simply want to justify pre-existing positions, so anything that doesn’t support this feels hostile to them. In another comment thread I have someone who’s never been to Hong Kong asking me to provide citations about what HK is like.
What ‘pre-existing’ positions exactly?
In this case? <enemy of the west> bad. They don’t feel any need to learn about Taiwan or Xinjiang or HK or Tibet beyond its utility in proving this, and certainly don’t care how it might affect the actual people living there.
You can observe the same phenomenon with Russia; no matter the data, somehow its indicative of Russia bad and justification to increase hostile action, even at the expense of Russia’s victims.
I don’t think that HK, Xinjiang or Tibet are relevant here. My own position is that the Taiwanese don’t want to be part of the PRC. And that’s all that matters.
We have polling, it says the people of Taiwan overwhelmingly want staus quo. What they want doesn’t matter to you.
Well Taiwan sees itself as part of mainland China, just not a part of the communist regime
Not anymore really, the Taiwanese government has abandoned claims to the mainland.
Abandoning claims is not the same as abandoning the view that they belong
Not really. Not many people in Taiwan really think that anymore. They’ve moved on.
How do you know?
Most people in Taiwan identify as Taiwanese over Chinese. Most people in Taiwan push for status-quo in polling, and of those that don’t, the second-most popular opinion is independence.
What, you truly think an island with the population of 23 million think its logistically possible for them to overcome an over a billion population difference and somehow take the mainland back under the banner of the ROC? The mainland also has nukes.
This is not what I meant. The taiwanese sees themselves as part of China, not an independent country. Just not a region that’s compatible with the communist party which is the issue here. Maintaining the status quo doesn’t contradict that.
If the CCP goes away the issue is gone.
This is not what I meant. The taiwanese sees themselves as part of China, not an independent country.
Officially, but most Taiwanese people now identify as Taiwanese. But all the same, you think they think its realistic they can somehow “take back” the mainland?
Just not a region that’s compatible with the communist party which is the issue here. Maintaining the status quo doesn’t contradict that.
I guess, but they’re also not deluded enough to think they can ever take it back.
If the CCP goes away the issue is gone.
Which they have no power to cause.
but most Taiwanese people now identify as Taiwanese
Again, how do you know? And why would that imply that they don’t believe that Taiwan and China are one entity?
I don’t understand why you bring up the possibility of Taiwan to remove the CCP or retake mainland China. My comment had nothing to do with that but with the opinion of the Taiwanese
Let me guess, you don’t think they have a legal claim to the island under UN law?
Let me guess, you think the UN matters more than the people living there?
Nah, just think people who are ignorant of their own laws should think more before they make their ignorance more widely known.
Yes because the only possible reason someone might not support a law they live under, is because they are ignorant of it
Are you implying UN law is even remotely relevant here? Or anywhere?
International law is what the CCP claims gives them the right. So no, I am not implying, I am stating it is relevant. Even if you disagree with the law, how do you expect this to be resolved peacefully without international law?
I don’t expect it to be resolved peacefully. Imperialism rarely is.
Edit: also, the UN is a joke. It’s just a tool the security council uses to bully other nations. It exists entirely for their benefit. This is like pointing to law under monarchy to support the king’s position. It’s totally circular.
Imperialism? How is this imperialism?
World power attempting to subordinate and subsume its neighbor by threats of invasion? How is it not imperialism?
Arguably the US’s defense of Taiwan is also imperialist but a more benign form than the CPC’s actions here. The Taiwanese people are just pawns in the struggle for global domination.
Because imperialism isn’t when invasion. You really should learn what words mean before you use them. Imperialism is a capitalist phenomena where high stage capitalist powers enforce(through force or other means) unequal exchange and super exploitation upon subordinate nations to extract super profits. The PRC has never done that.
Please consult the graph:
Are you unaware of the history of Taiwan? How it became “independent”?
I don’t really care if they do, to be honest. I value self-determination more.
From Australia’s POV: China blockades Taiwan (or economically chokes them a different way) and Taiwan gives in. We don’t step in coz we want lithium from our China daddy so we can build our own AI data centres.
Social media complains about it until either something distracts us or it lasts over a month and everyone gets over it.
Taiwan’s economy is like 98% reliant on China. China could drain Taiwan dry without ever setting foot on that island. Taiwan will negotiate a deal with Xi. They may like it or not.
China is maybe a third of their trade…not 98%
We have actual data on Taiwanese economy but clearly you know better. 98% reliant? I trust that wholeheartedly!
Username checks out
Someone who threatens war to acquire land is not the good guy. Fuck them.
Yes I realize this also references you know who as well.
Given human history, I think it references everyone. That’s not a dig, more acknowledgment that this isn’t actually new.
this also references you know who
No, I don’t know who. Is it Donald Trump? Vladimir Putin? Benjamin Netanyahu? Could be any of them.
Maybe it references all of them
I mean wasn’t it largely peaceful in the past? From China’s perspective they only need to act if Taiwan or other countries make public statements challenging their legal claim to the island, it is better for China to wait as the power dynamics are shifting in their favor. It is only the west that wants to force this issue to come to head now, while they still have a comparative advantage - but even now if China wants Taiwan there is little we can do keep that from happening (though the humanitarian cost would be staggering and likely hurt their standing internationally).
Edit: I also don’t see why mainland would suddenly pivot on the issue, there’s seems very little reason to expect them to change course.
A peaceful and realistic solution? Taiwan develops a strategic nuclear deterrent. They’re already a near-nuclear country and an industrial and technological powerhouse. A nuclear bomb is fully within their capability, and they already have abundant supplies of all the precursor materials in their possession. The most realistic solution to the Taiwan crisis is that Taiwan obtains nuclear weapons, and China is never able to threaten them with invasion again.
Taiwan trying to develop nuclear weapons would be the fastest way to get themselves invaded. China would put a stop to it before it they could even say “nuclear deterrent”.
And yet, plenty of other countries have managed to do it…
Have you looked into the context of how they were able to do it and how difficult stopping them would have been?
If North Korea could do it, so can Taiwan.
When I clicked on this thread I did not anticipate one of the answers being “Taiwan just needs to adopt Juche.”
A large part of why the DPRK is the way it is is because it has oriented itself around not getting invaded by a much stronger foe. They made the choice to orient their economy around self-suffiency, so that they could survive a prolonged conflict even if foreign navies completely cut them off from the rest of the world.
In contrast, Taiwan has an export economy, producing highly specialized equipment to be sold all around the world. Taiwan’s economy is intimately connected to the rest of the world. Taiwan is a much richer country because of it. But it also makes Taiwan more vulnerable to trade disruptions, for example, if China imposed a blockade.
I don’t think that Taiwan has any interest in walking the path of the DPRK. I’m also confused on how bringing a historical reenactment of the Cuban Missile Crisis into a situation that has been stable for decades is supposed to, what, bring peace?
North Korea has a million artillery pieces and like 20 million people ready to call back to service, and China would probably get involved if the alternative is a hostile puppet state on their border. The calculus of invading NK is quite different than Taiwan.
Which ones were a small island country that had a massively more powerful hostile neighbour looking right over their shoulder when developing their nuclear weapons?
North Korea did it, and it had the United States, the nation with the most powerful surveillance capabilities in the world looking right over its shoulder. And keep in mind, we’re still technically at war with North Korea. And North Korea might as well be an island. But really, the island part is irrelevant here, as Taiwan already possesses all the nuclear material it would need. It has a well developed nuclear power sector. The island gets half its electricity from nuclear power. And they have several research reactors. It already has all the fissile material it needs to build a bomb.
plenty of other countries
North Korea
Wouldn’t that mean China and US would be at war? I don’t think the Chinese would want that.
History has proven otherwise.
It turns out, that while everyone says that arms races and escalation lead to conflict… Actually, what we’ve seen is that waiving a big stick is the only true deterrent.
That sounds like a surefire way for Taiwan to get invaded, since I’m very certain that China does not want more nuclear missiles pointed at it, much less by Taiwan right off its coast. Taiwan might end up like Iran (who the U.S. claimed were developing nukes)
If Taiwan does end up developing nukes without the knowledge of China or other major powers, then you could argue that nuclear deterrance would work. But the intelligence systems of all the global powers is incredibly advanced now, so it would probably be difficult for Taiwan to covertly do something like that (esp given that we know both sides send spies to each other)
Unless Taiwan can spend the trillions upon trillions of dollars and fully complete enough MIRV ICBMs to be able to absolutely saturate the entire country of China leaving no inch of land unscathed from nuclear fire, essentially ensuring MAD doctrine to deter an invasion, all without China discovering this, China won’t tolerate a nuclear program and simply invade Taiwan so trivially with their unending human meat waves to destroy all hope of defense surrounding the island.
Taiwan doesn’t need thousands of nuclear weapons to be a credible threat to China. A dozen bombs with delivery systems would be more than enough to make a credible deterrent. The goal isn’t to be able to wipe out the entire population of mainland China. The goal would simply be to make any invasion so costly that the cost would vastly outweigh any potential gains. I don’t know what all Xi hopes to gain by conquering Taiwan, but whatever it is, it’s not worth losing the dozen largest Chinese cities in a series of mushroom clouds. To the Chinese leadership, the conquest of Taiwan is not worth getting Beijing nuked. Maybe Mao would have made that trade, back when China was a rural peasant nation. But now? China is the workshop of the world. The entire economy and China’s place in the world are utterly dependent on its megacities.
A dozen bombs with delivery systems would be more than enough to make a credible deterrent.
ALL of those can be trivially intercepted with military tech from the mid-90’s that China has in abundance (I love you internet armchair generals and the guile to be so wrong constantly), hence the modern necessity to create MIRVs which are impossible to track if enough are deployed.
I don’t know what all Xi hopes to gain by conquering Taiwan,
Might want to figure that out first, before trying to come up with a solution. Because I’d say the number one thing Xi would gain by conquering Taiwan would be, “Not having an island full of missiles pointing at us right off our coast.”
If he stopped being a hostile dictator looking to conquer Taiwan he would achieve the same thing, no invasion needed!
No he absolutely would not lmao. How are y’all this naive?
Exactly my point, he won’t calm down
No, he would not achieve the same thing if he “calmed down.” Because the reason the US wants missiles on Taiwan has absolutely nothing to do with how “calm” Xi Jinping is.
It also has nothing to do with how democratic China is. In fact, it’s the opposite. The US prefers to have anti-democratic governments because those are the governments most willing to hand over all the country’s resources.
Tell me, how did “not being a dictator” and “remaining calm” work out for Mohammad Mossadegh, the peaceful, progressive, democratically elected prime minister of Iran, who was deposed in a CIA coup in favor of a fascist monarch who hunted down anyone to his left with secret police?
You are completely delusional and ignorant of history and reality.
unending human meat waves
You know China has been building their military for this singular conflict since like 1949 right? They have an entire branch of their military dedicated to missiles.
The idea of WWI-style human meat waves getting applied to communist countries was literally nazi propaganda. China didn’t cause the longest retreat in US history during the Korean war because suddenly WWI tactics started working against a military 50 years more advanced than the one that demonstrated human meat waves don’t work.
Not Nazi propaganda. Literally what Russia does to this day…
Sadly the current status quo is the best solution.
China simply waits and maintains its current policy until pro-unification sentiment in Taiwan grows large enough. The balance of power in the Pacific is shifting away from the US and before this century is out they will no longer be able to offer security guarantees.
All polling indicates that pro-unification sentiment isn’t growing though. If China is waiting until they have consent of the Taiwanese, then why would security guarantees from the USA be relevant in the first place?
Most likely the thought is that without US security support, Taiwanese sentiment will shift towards China by default.
This seems to be complete conjecture though.
Now you’re getting it. Security guarantees from the US are NOT relevant. They are rhetorical cover for military build up inline with the US policy of encirclement. Absent from all of these discussions is that the US has military forces stationed 4 miles of the mainland because Taiwan is not one island it’s a province comprising an island chain. The CPC’s consistent policy is peaceful reunification via waiting except in the case where a foreign military uses the province to threaten the mainland.
After what China did to Hong Kong that’s never happening.
What China did to Hong Kong?
You mean freed them from a council imposed by the British, elected by the crown and large businesses?
Stole their autonomy, reduced social freedoms, and imprisoned activists creating an environment of fear and oppression.
What autonomy, they lived in a dictatorship of the bourgeoisie imposed by Britain.
What Social freedoms? The freedom to die under bridges or in coffin apartments or to live in literal tinder boxes?
What Social freedoms? The freedom to die under bridges or in coffin apartments or to live in literal tinder boxes?
Sorry, what, you depict pre-CCP controlled Hong Kong as if it was Somalia, or something.
I depict it as living in a colony of Britain, which it literally was.
And the coffin apartments, homelessness, and lack of fire safety are pretty well known. Have you been to Hong Kong? There’s massive inequality and some of the highest rent in the world because the government blocked the expansion of housing for decades.
I depict it as living in a colony of Britain, which it literally was.
And what did the people of Hong Kong want exactly?
And the coffin apartments, homelessness, and lack of fire safety are pretty well known.
These are things all “well known” in lots of highly populated urban cities. Is Hong Kong supposed to be unique here? Are you referring to any data that specifically identifies Hong Kong being uniquely ailed by the worst excesses of urban blight in comparison to other similar cities? What does this have to do with cracking down on pro-independence movements and activism in the city?
Anything’s possible when you make shit up
You mean freed them from a council imposed by the British, elected by the crown and large businesses?
And so what new representation rights did they provide them after they annexed them, exactly? Or did they round up and purge the pro-autonomy and independence activists?
Forty-Six
When the Tao is present in the universe, The horses haul manure.
When the Tao is absent from the universe,
War horses are bred outside the city.There is no greater sin than desire,
No greater curse than discontent,
No greater misfortune than wanting something for oneself.
Therefore he who knows that enough is enough will always have enough.Sixty-One
[…]
Therefore if a great country gives way to a smaller country,
It will conquer the smaller country.
And if a small country submits to a great country,
It can conquer the great country.
Therefore those who would conquer must yield,
And those who conquer do so because they yield.A great nation needs more people,
A small country needs to serve.
Each gets what it wants.
It is fitting for a great nation to yield.Thirty
[…]
Force is followed by loss of strength.
This is not the way of Tao.
That which goes against the Tao comes to an early end.from the Tao The Ching (by Lao Tsu), as translated by Gia-Fu Feng and Jane English
Book 14 #3
The Master said: ‘When the way prevails in the state, be enterprising in speech and enterprising in action; but when the Way does not prevail in the state, be enterprising in action but prudent in speech.’
from The Analects (of Confucius), as translated by Raymond Dawson
mostly a distraction from internal problems, realistic they will never capture taiwan intact, if they want those chip factories, plus its not like hong kong where the govt is chosen by CHINA.
China should be balkanised and people given freedom to live independently without fear of imperialist invasion.
Honestly there seems to be a trend of countries getting too big for themselves
What happened the last time China was balkanized? Let’s ask the US government:
“But how could Japan, only 1/20th the size of China, with only 1/6th the population, even think of conquering China, much less the world?”
"Modern China, in spite of its age old history, was like the broken pieces of jigsaw puzzle, each piece controlled by a different ruler, each with his own private army. In modern terms, China was a country, but not yet a nation.”
- Why We Fight: The Battle for China (1944)
Lets say America Maduros Xi and all 3000 members of congress for good measure, then holds free elections. Who do you think the chinese people vote for? Someone who will give up China’s labor and resources for pennies, the primary reason that China and the west have an antagonistic relationship, or you know, more communists?
I’m garbage in history.
Can’t we just treat it as relationships. I mean the reunification should only be done if both sides mutually agree. Forcing by any means is not good
There is more functional democracy in China with its one-party socialist state than there is in the US’s two-party capitalist democracy.
The idea that the number of parties impacts the people’s will and ability to enact change is complete fantasy celebrated by those who mindlessly fetishize democracy.
A good thing it’s not a direct choice between joining the USA or joining PRC for Taiwan then.
