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I saw a commercial for a car lot advertising that they do seven year financing. Like that’s helpful.
Last time I considered buying a new car (in 2019), it turned out that the payment amount if financed over a reasonable number of years was going to be damn close to what I pay for my mortgage! That’s partially because my house was cheap when I bought it (not so much, now), but it’s also because new cars are ridiculously expensive these days, above and beyond normal inflation.
(I didn’t go through with the purchase for other reasons, BTW. Namely, that Toyota was unable to find me a truck with a manual transmission and the other options I wanted, down to the color. If I’m buying a new car it should be exactly what I want, damn it!)
7 and 9 years are very common in my country.
What are the interest rates like?
About 2.2% to 3.7% p.a., depend on bank. More often than not people will take the 7 years, but nowadays car is getting more and more pricier and people also trying to project their standard of living more, so 9 years is getting more and more common. 5 years is always rare.
I’ll have to wait for the commercial to reappear, but I think they were over 6% APR here.
Wow, that’s really high
Ban cars from
populatedareas.Or ban cars from Gaia.
Wait till the AI token loans of 2045…
But I don’t want AI tokens… Then again, if everyone else gets addicted to it, fuck me my life is going to be so easy in comparison. Another expense I won’t have!
Already don’t have a car which saves so much I can buy a house and have more money left over than some car owners I know. Wtf do I spend the AI token savings on? There isn’t really anything I want. Maybe start a crack addiction? Not sure if its as addictive as Factorio though.
Dystopian novel: Workers compete for jobs, the only way to outwork the masses is to use AI, companies no longer buy* tokens and people have to BYOT, not far off the rideshare gig economy BYOC
What I’m reading there is that there’s going to be a 2008-style Crash (this time on auto debt instead of realestate) alongside a 2000-style Crash (this time on Generative AI instead of a Net bubble).
Mind you, it will be centered in the US and other countries will mainly feel side effects.
Indeed and that mofo is going to be steam roller too.
so the time to buy a car will be soon?
Combine that with a crash of the USD itself. Also commercial and industrial real estate never got the same protections as home loans post-2008 so there’s a shit ton of 2008 style shenanigans concerning offices and industrial plots ready to also blow up.
There’s no more road to kick our can down. We must face the can. The can is our reckoning.
Well, the supposedly “temporary” ultra-low interest rates that were the “solution” for the Crisis following the 2008 Crash only really postponned the day of reckonning.
Further, those and other government measures rewarding Asset Owners (read: the rich) on the backs of those whose Income comes from Work, caused inequality to explode, which means more “unused money” around (every additional €1 of income for the wealthy goes almost entirelly into savings, every additional €1 if income for the poor and working class goes almost entirelly into consumption) and all that extra money was seeking investments, any investments, which was visible in the markets by lower interest rates on treasuries (for example, the famous negative German bund interest rates), lower bond yields (meaning higher prices for the same level of risk), higher stocks and so on up the risk scale, a pumping up of lots and lots of extra investment money which ultimatelly inflated several bubbles at the same time.
Further, the ultra-low interest rates also made it cheaper to leverage one’s investments (i.e. invest with loaned money alongside one’s own money), further adding money to those bubbles given the way money is created in the modern monetary system (mainly created by banks when they give loans, with only a small percentage actually created by central banks).
This, by the way, also explains things like the crypto bubble.
I really only mentioned the biggest ones I’m aware off, but I bet we’ll have a lot of bubbles of all sizes exploding as soon as the first big bubble blows and causes a credit crunch and investment retraction.
a crash of the USD itself
A crash into what alternative? If people are trading away their USDs, what are they trading them for?
There’s no more road to kick our can down.
I’ve been hearing people say this since Reagan. “This is the end of the road! The End of History, even!”
But what’s the alternative? Does the US just pop out of existence? Do all those creditors take a massive inflationary haircut on their outstanding loans? Does the US suddenly shift to an export economy to get… Japanese Yen? Russian Rubbles? Mexican Pesos? Nigerian gold bars?
A crash into what alternative? If people are trading away their USDs, what are they trading them for?
Why does there have to be an alternative for the USD to implode? Why would a lack of an alternative sustain an unsustainable system which appears to be cracking under it’s own weight right now? The US govt being forced to issue debt at unsustainable interest rates is the only cause of death you need if people don’t think they’ll get their money back. They will figure out an alternative in that situation.
USD’s supremacy isn’t just from being the “safest” asset you can hold but also that you need it to buy energy from the middle east, since they agreed to only trade in USD in exchange for US military protection. Also because everybody else uses it. I doubt BRICS will be the alternative though, even if it is a half hearted attempt to get around SWIFT and USD.
And right now it seems to be gold. China has been dumping US treasuries since 2020 and moving heavily into Gold. France did the same. Althought thats not a viable alternative… there simply isn’t enough Gold. In an ideal world we would move towards a Keynsian basket of goods as the international unit of exchange instead of a domestic currency but we’ll probably pick the dumbest, least painful in the short term, most painful and debilitating in the long term answer… nobody plants trees anymore.
Why does there have to be an alternative for the USD to implode?
Because value is relative. In order for the value of the USD to fall, the exchange rate has to rise. And that implies people are trading a surplus of USD for another thing.
What is that thing?
The same goods and services but massively increasing amounts of USD diluting its own value because interest rates are so high for US treasuries they enter a death spiral borrowing more (printing) to pay for the borrowing they already did, especially as debt rolls over from 1-2% to 5%+?
It’s not looking good… there’s no debate that the debt is growing faster than the US economy. Trump blew up the tacit deal requiring USD for energy. Now UAE and others are willing to trade oil in chinese yuan or rubles. Their security agreements with the US apparently weren’t worth the paper they were printed on considering the US did the exact opposite of what they promised to those OPEC nations, in fact they actively caused this dumb war with Iran that’s destroying plants and infrastructure in the gulf. Thats worse than reneging on your security promises…
Do you think the USD is headed in a positive direction? What do you think is going to happen?
The same goods and services but massively increasing amounts of USD
Who has a super abundance of USD that wants to purchase such enormous volumes of consumer goods?
2008-style Crash (this time on auto debt instead of realestate)
The 2008 crash was also an auto debt crash. That’s why you had Cash-For-Clunkers rolled out in 2009 followed by Obama and Romney arguing over an automotive bailout in the 2012 election.
Also the reason you can’t buy a new Mercury/Pontiac
These threads are always full of people saying, “why don’t you just…” The problem is you are suggesting coping methods for a plethora of problems, in a vacuum individually. You’re failing to put all of the problems of cars, trucks, and their requisite infrastructure together as the awful, smothering whole that it is.
Listen, I agree in practice.
But I would not quote “Unusual Whales” for economic advise. This is an AI account that posts “hot tips” for attention.
The deliquency rate for auto loans has been in headlines since at least March. This is a big show slow ship and it’s bait to assume some AI account is going to tell you the day it goes down.
yep AI has gotten so good that even people that hate it can’t even detect that it’s an AI account.
Someone not paying attention screenshotting a quote of a quote is not AI being good enough to evade detection, it’s someone not bothering to check if it’s AI.
All Cars Are Bad 🦔
Nah. Cars are a tool that can be good or bad depending on how they are used. Prioritizing car infrastructure over any other form is what’s bad.
I should be able to enjoy my daily life without a car. But being able to rent a car so I can go to the middle of nowhere on short notice is pretty great.
Having a single car requires car infrastructure which requires overproduction. The only reason we “need” cars today is that we have decided that society should revolve around it. We should strive to dismantle car infrastructure.
Your position is no less extreme and absurd than our current reality of using cars for everything. We would liberate ourselves of virtually all of the negative impacts of private car dominance well before we got to the point of banning ALL cars. Going that extra mile just for ideological purity would be self defeating and require authoritarian governance to pull off.
Well sure, it can just be left to fall apart instead, but the infrastructure to support any number of cars still requires masses of maintenance. You can have some kind of ATV to go off on adventures in, but we’re not wasting resources on stuff like filling potholes or service stations.
A lot of people choose a car even when it is just worse.
My bike ride to work is 8km and takes 20-25 mins. Yet I know people who live and work near me who drive the same route which takes almost twice as long mostly sat in traffic. They spend more on their car than I do on my mortgage and that is before maintenance, insurance, oh and fuel too because despite choosing such an expensive car and never driving over 10km, oh yeah gotta go for ICE.
Suppose at least with such short distances driven that fuel lasts a while. Doesn’t stop them moaning about it though. I should start responding with the cost of Cornish pasties to power my bike.
If they spend most of their time sitting in traffic then that gas tank won’t last very long at all.
How are the bike lanes where you are?
I would if i could. I hate driving, but I would get killed if i biked to work. Hell, I’d possibly die just trying to get to the nearest grocery store. I need a bike lane.
There’s the trick. Cyclists know that.
We’re just making our hate for existing on this planet a bit more honest.
Used to cycle a lot, first in The Netherlands, later in London (Britain), but where I am now (Portugal) it’s very dangerous because drivers here are in my experience some of the worst in Europe (let’s just say that, for example, most won’t signal their intention to change direction when turning right, which is very dangerous for cyclists), but in a way I’m in a priviledged position, so I chose to live in a small city close where I work, so I just walk to work (about 15 minutes each way) which even has the upside that I’m guaranteed my 30m+ exercise each day, which a study some years ago showed decreases the risk of cardio-vascular problems by 70%.
This was kinda the reason I went back to cycling to work when I lived in London (I had lived in The Netherlands before and there it was pretty normal to do so) - it turns out that it was faster to just cycle through half of Zones 1 and 2 than to walk to an catch the tube (at least London actually has a subway, by car it would’ve been even worse because of traffic, not to mention parking).
This was back when cycling facilities there were a bit of a joke and there were but a few people doing the same as I did.
Further, even though I was doing it in a big city (so air polution was a consideration), my health actually improved from it (more so when I discovered a site with a polution map of London and switched to a route that minimized time in big avenues with lots of traffic and polution).
I’ve spent only 9,000 so far on purchasing cars in my life. You do not need to spend 50k. I find the cheapest, most gas efficient beaten down used cars I can and ride them until I can’t anymore.
People really fall into wanting a “nice” car, but if you treat it as a tool to take you from point A to point B and not a status symbol then you can actually find half affordable cars.
I’d love not to have a car, but public transit is nonexistent in my area. If I attempted to bike I would either get ran over or some asshole in a lifted truck would roll coal on me for fun
that market just doesn’t exist anymore in my province, especially with the more thorough safety inspection standards.
they’ll let you have lowbeam headlights so bright that they’ll make a pedestrian in a crosswalk entirely invisible to oncoming traffic at a four way stop, but oh hell no you can’t have a tiny rust hole that could cut somebody if they walked up and stuck their finger into it and wiggled it around.
the cheapest cars that will pass safety in my area will run you at least $3000, at absolute bare minimum, and you’ve still got $500 in tax and licensing, plus $500 for used tires soon enough. and then the maintenance for brakes and worn/broken suspension parts… rust is a killer up here. I wish they’d stop salting the roads
On purchasing, sure, but how much have you spent on maintenance?
(And also, roughly how old are you? Having spent only $9k in your life if you’re 20 is a very different claim than if you’re 50.)
I’ve been driving for 9 years and one car was totaled in an accident otherwise I’d still have it.
So if we got technical and I count the insurance payout that reimbursed the first car I’ve spent -1,000 on cars. Second car was cheaper than the insurance payout.
My current car is from 2007, I’ve had it for 6 years. So far it’s only had 1 major repair that costed about 1,000. Otherwise just the normal maintenance at appropriate intervals. It’s sub-compact so the tires are small and quite cheap and it holds less oil than a standard sedan. When I do the oil changes myself this also saves me some money.
I expect the car to last at least 1-2 more years at least. At that point I either have to start pouring money into it or buy another
wait so you paid x for car1 and got a y payout and paid z for the second car and your saying x+z-y is -$1000 because that is what im reading. Are you sure you did not come out 1k ahead on car one and then car2 cost that and more?
The payout on car 1 was 5k and the cost of car 2 was 4k.
The economy was doing weird shit to the used car market when I got the first car and it held it’s value quite well.
I don’t remember the exact numbers anymore and I know I’m rounding so maybe it’s closer to -800, but I do remember coming out nicely ahead with the insurance payout.
Either way car 2 was cheaper.
so you paid 200 for car 1 and it ran for years with no maintenance?
Ah wait, I see my math error now big time. God I’m tired. So 4k on cars as first car was fully paid off by insurance.
Thank you for pointing that I’ll fix my numbers
yeah sorry I replied fast to the last one but that makes more sense now.
I’ve been driving for 9 years and one car was totaled in an accident otherwise I’d still have it.
Yeah, that sounds 'bout right: short enough that you can still have an artificially-rosy impression based on luck that nothing major has broken yet, especially since the collision replacement reset the clock. For all you know, that car might’ve been destined to blow its engine the day after it was totaled.
I’ve been driving for over two decades, and even owning almost entirely old cars (with only one exception, and that was one I didn’t pay for), I’ve spent much more than $9K on them. And that’s despite both doing most of my own maintenance and being willing to just accept flaws that other people would pay to fix or scrap the car over.
I’m not saying it’s a bad strategy, for those who must own a car. I’m just saying that even the optimal strategy still adds up eventually.
For all you know, that car might’ve been destined to blow its engine the day after it was totaled.
I 100% know that would not have have happened. I’m not a mechanic, but I know enough to assure you that is not the case.
Even still if it did die the next day that would be back to the 9k.
And I wouldn’t call it pure luck, I did a ton of research and shopped around for a couple weeks before I found something acceptable. It’s held up as expected
I 100% know that would not have have happened. I’m not a mechanic, but I know enough to assure you that is not the case.
I would also swear up and down that each of my old cars was reliable, until suddenly it was not.
I say that not to scare or discourage anybody from owning an old car instead of a new one, but just to have realistic expectations. And maybe encourage people to have a good roadside assistance policy.
The car that got totaled was in great condition and had absolutely no issues.
The car I’m driving today sure that one could go tomorrow or in a couple of years.
Cars definitely give you signs they are getting ready to give out. You just have to recognize them. Sometimes they are subtle and it can definitely be a waiting game, but once the signs appear it can be tomorrow or 2 years.
I haven’t owned many cars personally, but my family has only ever driven clunkers. You learn the signs and which ones are worth the gamble to ignore.
Honestly its possible to just keep a car going forever if you get the right one. Get someone with a reliable track record and just make sure to spray down the frame so it doesn’t rust, keep up with maintenence, and you can drive it for 50 years. Even the big stuff that comes up (like rebuilding a trans) is cheaper than buying a new car.
Cries in state that needs, and applies, road salt 😭
You should be applying treatments to protect your frame. Regularly.
Unibody joys. It’s very unrealistic to try to cost the inside of your doors and trunk/hatch.
That’s not to say it’s not worth doing anything - it absolutely is. It just slows the rust down though, it can’t stop it.
Sounds like a lot of people were convinced to borrow way more than they could afford for a status symbol no one should care about. Financial literacy should be taught in middle school.
Never in my live did I expect to live through an Economic Crash related to Penis Compensation Devices …
I have 20k in debt just buying a Toyota corolla. I think there is a lot of people who bought status symbols, but there are a lot of people who just need a car that isn’t going to break. If I bought used and something happens that would cost me 5k, which can easily happen, Im screwed. I dont know what the answer is. A few years ago, I had a job two blocks away, now I have a job 50 min away. I have to get there somehow and its not like my job is going to be ok with me saying “I need a week off because my car broke”
Yes, there should be accounting and financial classes in middle/high school. However, then the (predatory) loan industry would have less prey. They “love the poorly educated.”
I refuse to own a car. Worthless in my opinion.
“We destroyed?” - it was car industry, no? I remember there was something about car industry buying public transport just to shut them down late.r
Eisenhower interstate system in the US was the start of the downfall. It’s a very cool system, but it cost us the trains. I dont know that it can be justified. I like driving and having the freedom to do so, but I would also like to not have to: plus there are a shit load more people who directly suffer because they simply can not drive.
I hope the next wave of logistical genius incorporates more mass public transit, while still supporting some highway network.
Hub style, like airport parking esque, but for bullet trains and light rail. New building would need to require parking as part of the footprint (incorporated decks) to save on space that can be used for public benefit.
Easy to expand on, the counter argument is always “but the cost?!” Like wtf do you think a highway costs per foot? The answer is up to $2,000 per god damn foot. You can buy a lot with that.
That is indeed the case; I believe “we” here refers to society, and functions as a synecdoche for the auto industry
Synecdoche. Haven’t come across a good new word in a while, thanks!
Does this mean we’ll finally get some decent cheaper used cars on the market? (Just kidding, we all know the answer.)
You can get a decent used car but it’s like $25k and up
When I was looking in 2011, it was still ~22k for several-years-old Corollas/Civics. They just don’t lose any value.
It’s why everything I own is 3 plus years old. Cash for clunckers was the biggest fucking scam.
Mine are both over 10 years old. One needed a new head gasket and the $8500 that cost was thousands cheaper than any car we’d consider.
This typifies how screwed up things are right now. It makes more sense to rebuild an engine than buy new - that was unheard of 20 years ago.
Holy shit, $8500 for a head gasket job?? We’re on to a whole other problem here, good lord that’s insane.
My current car cost 4k in 2020. It was made in 2007 and has only costed 1k in repairs that weren’t basic maintenance.
It’s ugly as hell, and honestly sounds like shit too, but it runs. Still good gas mileage too
Reject modernity buy ugly ass cars
The headliner on my shitbox has started falling off and honestly it adds character.
Staple it back up!
I want to find those sparkly pins my girlfriend had in her 91 Pontiac
50k dude what are you buying
People are extremely financially illiterate it boggles my mind. I know some folks whose car payments are like fucking $800 - $1000 a month. My whole mortgage is $950.
I know some folks whose car payments are like fucking $800 - $1000 a month.
But that’s only $200-250 a week!
That’s a great deal if you ask me. Let me go get me one.
On average, Americans paid $49,855 for a new car in July, marking the highest level so far this year.
https://www.kbb.com/car-news/average-new-car-price-in-july-hits-2026-high/
This is enabled by financial illiteracy and arguably predatory 8+ year loans on new vehicles.
When I was car shopping last spring ( after totaling my 2013 mazda 3 😩) I saw that the most favorable financing seemed to be available for the larger and more expensive models. Like the Mazda 3 and CX 30 had no special incentives but the CX 5 and 90 had some zero 0 interest offers. I imagine that the financing incentives are similar at different credit levels, so there could be perverse incentive to spend more on a larger vehicle because it’s the only way to get a monthly payment that fits someone’s budget.
I also got a car semi recently and hearing how people are stretching the terms from 5 years to 8 (for lower payments) was shocking
Too many people buying above their means
What does that calculation look like when also considering used cars?
They’re also really expensive. When Covid shut down plants the price spiked and hasn’t recovered.
I don’t have any data on that though. My perception is that long loans give incentive to keep ised vehicle prices high - they’re almost interest-only payments for the first 1/3 of the loan so the owner of a 3 year old average car must sell it for almost MSRP or they’ll lose money, and unless there’s pressure to sell it at a loss, they won’t, in turn driving up used prices. Thats just my pet theory.
“Cash for Clunkers” had already fucked the used car market; Covid just added to it.
If you take a look at car YouTube and media this is something that been talked about since COVID.
Right now there is no value space for cars and if you’re forced to purchase and can’t pay cash interest rates are a thing too.
There are lots of models with 250 plus days of supply my, my concern is that the auto loan and AI bubbles at the same time, that would make '08 seem fun.
Even if the vehicle itself were free, fuel, maintenance, insurance, taxes/registration, tolls, other taxes, and parking still end up being $1000’s a year. $50k over the lifetime of a vehicle would probably be cheap. This seems to undersell the cost of a vehicle. Granted, some of that cost if paid by people who don’t even own a vehicle. But there’s also the indirect costs, such as increased cost of healthcare from more solitary and sedentary lifestyles, the cost of wars over fuel, etc.
To the extent that we need cars (since our infrastructure would take years to change even if there was the political will to do it) we need to start copying the Cubans and learn to keep old cars on the road longer. Bonus: they don’t spy on you like new cars do.
This is the way.
For simple® car designs, I anticipate that 3d scanning, 3d printing, and even mail order custom parts/manufacturing are going to be indespensible once available parts dry up. Until then, there’s no end in sight for replacement Corolla parts.
I have just reached this point myself.
I have a short fun drive to work, enjoy it as a way to clear my head, and I even had a manual transmission WRX a long time ago. I have been checking up on the current models and there are some pretty good looking options whether manual + AWD or maybe a dual clutch setup, etc.
But right now I’m driving a basic car that we bought new like 14 years ago. It still looks good, it’s fun to drive (the automatic is shiftable and has lockup clutches while in gear), and it seems mechanically sound with very low miles for the age.
Just the other day I made a conscious decision to stop reading and watching car reviews, and I have been getting back into working on my own car. I have some supplies on the way to change some fluids and shine up the exterior.
Having a fun car helps the drive as long as there’s not too much traffic. I almost don’t mind driving my kid to school (because there’s not enough buses) because my GTI is fun.
Yeah, and that is one of the big intangible benefits of my current job. I do a lot of work in-office even though I’m a software guy, and my “commute” is a 6 or 7 minute drive where the middle two miles is a twisty and hilly country road with very few houses on it. And, if the weather is really really bad, there is a slightly shorter alternate route through a much more populated area but it is perfectly flat roads the whole way.
A GTI would be an absolute blast. Does it have the DSG and if so, how do you like it?
My car is an old Mazda3 from when they first introduced their “Skyactiv” branded tech. The 6-speed auto transmission doesn’t quickly snap through shifts like I imagine a dual clutch would, but since keeps the lockup clutch pack engaged as often as possible, when in gear it kind of feels like a manual. I can do the whole twisty road stretch of my commute in 3rd gear and have a pretty fun time hovering between 3k and 5k RPM.
The engine is a 2.0L 155hp, and every time I drive to or from work I think to myself that if I got a new “fun” car it would have roughly double the power and only be a few hundred pounds heavier (unless I went for an MX-5 or a BRZ/GR86 instead of a sedan). I would like it, sure, but the car I am currently sitting in is great fun and it is FREE versus $20K-$40K.
Mine has a manual but I owned one a while back with a DSG. Shifts are basically instant and it’s quicker than a stick, I just like feeling like a race car driver
What they need to do is go back to interchangeable parts and stop letting manufacturers make so many fucking different pieces that do the same shit. A car is a simple machine, stop adding gizmos and all kinda of shit to it to clog it down and bog the cost
Bring back standardized headlights
If we did that you wouldn’t be able to see a block through the smog in some places.
Depends on how far back you go. Cars from the late 90s and early 2000s are still pretty clean.
Also, a lot of cars can be converted to electric with some knowhow and welding. This could become a cottage industry.
In California, all cars newer than 1975 must pass a smog test.
Converting ICE vehicles to electric vehicles is a cottage industry. While looking for a mechanic recently I found two places that do it.
People power!
'90s diesels can arguably be less polluting than modern “clean” diesels, depending on which pollutants you care about and if you’re running bio-diesel instead of dino-diesel. (Old diesels can run B100, which is carbon-neutral and emits zero SOx, but it’ll destroy the high-pressure fuel pump on a modern common-rail diesel.)
So you’re saying we need to embargo ourselves.
We also need better public transport and to be promoting things like mopeds as a viable alternative to cars.
Amen!
