One more thing. It’s not that people don’t have kids. They just have less kids. For example, in my apartment building out of 16 families, 2 have 3 kids, 8 have 2 kids, 2 have one kid and 4 don’t have any kids. That looks fine but it’s still way below replacement levels. Couple of decades ago we would see many families with 4-5 kids and vast majority would have more than two. Now majority of people stop at 1 or 2. For majority of people having more than 2 kids is hard to justify. You already have your family unit, why have more? Having 5 kids is considered weird now.
I mean I feel like these numbers have been decreasing since mortality rates increased. People used to have 5-10 kids because they knew they likely wouldn’t all live through childhood. It makes sense that people realized that shift and that having 10 kids who survived wasn’t easy! So yes that plus economics makes sense why most families are about 2 kids.
Or course, I’m just saying that what most people don’t realize is that to reach the birthrate the governments are aiming for it’s not enough for every single person to have a family. If every single person in the country got married and had two kids it would still not be enough. And of course you have all the single people, infertile people, gay couples and people that simply don’t want kids so to offset that you need significant proportion of big families (4-5 kids) and this is seen as weird now. The family model that would let us hit replacement levels is simply outdated in most western countries.
Haha, it’s interesting. I’m a lesbian, never had an interest in kids. My brother is straight, never been interested in kids. My sister is a lesbian and has had two kids (so far?). It’s just interesting to see what different people see as the barriers/reasons for not having kids (not having a dig, it’s genuinely interesting!)
That’s where it would be fascinating to see the statistics laid out for so many things side by side; how many more LGBTQ people are having families than in the past, same with infertile people, single people (more rare but it happens!) and then the ways that it’s decreased too elsewhere. There are groups who are having more kids than ever before - because it’s more accessible (IVF) and then obviously groups that aren’t.
Then of course the way that life expectancy has increased which is where the balance gets tricky and the numbers are important.
I’m also curious if 4-5 kid families are still more common in any western countries than others. I’m in Australia and agree that they’re rare here now. I’d see 2 as the norm though I’m going to jump down a rabbit hole now 😅 🐇
I think only Israel is above replacement levels now. All the other developed countries have significantly lower birthrate than couple of decades ago. All the gay couples having kids and IVF is simply not enough to offset the loss of big families. And that’s on top of the simple fact, that not having kids is socially acceptable now and people who don’t want kids simply don’t have them. To offset that we would need 3-4 kids to be the norm for a family, not 1-2.
And yes, detailed stats would be interesting. Let me know what you’ll find :)
Yep, definitely not saying that we’re not below the replacement numbers despite certain demographics having more access and increases! The replacement number itself is so generic.
It’s based on developed country’s requirements without taking migration into account. So it’s not what most developed countries talking about declining birth rates, are actually aiming for. Australia, for example, is built on immigration, our goal being based on no immigration makes no sense! Other countries (Ireland for example) still have a high rate of emigration. A lot to take into consideration outside the very generic replacement number of 2.1 when you start to narrow it down 😅 You’re right about Israel in terms of developed countries! They’re sitting at ~2.9!
Some of the rhetoric I see seems to be that the birth rates have “suddenly” dropped which is far from accurate.
I’m looking at a couple of countries but particularly Australia. Contraception being introduced (early 60s) had a big effect as did the accessibility of abortion (70s). In fact, it appears that the biggest “sudden drop” actually occured through the 70s/early 80s. I wonder if they were speaking about it in the alarmist way we (society) do now.
Interestingly - Australia - teen pregnancies have dropped 75% since the 1970s. Gonna say this is a good thing about declining birth rates. 👏
I’m no data analyst but I think that it looks like the biggest factor for declining birth rates came with birth control. If not for that I think the graphs would look relatively stable with smaller fluctuations.
Australia actually had a small increase in the early 2020s! Still below 2.1 though!
I don’t know, it’s all very interesting. I think there are a lot of very good things about the birth rate having dropped. Found a study around the decreasing rate of “undesired births”. Such a nuanced topic! I’m sure there’s more numbers out there for individual countries about the projection around migration numbers needed rather than focusing on the generic replacement number.
A few of the sources I read;
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/historical-population/latest-release
Late stage capitalism.
Having kids is really expensive and insane amount of responsibility. Childcare is a full time job - so you need to go one worker per family, or be able to afford paying for it.Yeah, people used to have a bunch of kids because they could help with work. It wasn’t profitable, but they at least offset some of their own expenses by the end, and were often relied upon for all the work to get done. Now it’s just fully another job and another expense; few people want to put in the work on top of all the other work they still need to do, and pay for the privilege.
Oh i can sing you a song of this :)
We are living through the collapse of capitalism. Countries will fall I to 1 of 2 categories in response.
- Socialist
- Fascist
Given most countries are lead by the hyper rich, expect to see most being forcibly directed to #2
And it also becomes recursive I think.
People want to be good parents. But in late stage capitalism, that means setting your children up to succeed in that environment. If people struggle to set themselves up as parents, they can’t have faith that they’ll be able to set their children up such that there’s just no point. Especially if you start thinking about the future and whether your grandkids could even be ok.
As someone living in the USA going into my late 30s still without kids, you nailed it. We’ve been married for 10 years. In a different world, we might have had a kid at some point in the last 5, but between covid and climate change and the second Trump term and the general sense that everything is about to implode, it doesn’t really make us feel inspired to try.
To be clear, at the moment we have everything we would need to be parents if we wanted to. But the prospect of subjecting a kid to young adulthood in the 2040s seems brutal. We’re what I would consider “nudge-able” into having a kid or two, but the world keeps giving us nothing but nudges in the direction of choosing to be childfree for life.
Random example from this year: we keep getting barraged with news slop about how our jobs are about to all be replaced by LLMs or the economy is about to collapse under the weight of the LLM bubble. Not particularly reassuring. I realize there’s no perfect time to have kids and tons of people make it work, but as a couple who have always been in the “maybe” camp, inaction feels like the only thing a logical person would choose, year after year after year.
We don’t have many years left where it’s actually viable, and frankly I can’t imagine it’s going to change.
This is what happened to my wife and me. We kept waiting and delaying because shit sucked and now… we can’t. Nature made the decision for us, much to the dismay of my parents but to the joy of my bank account.
I’m sorry, but every human being from every generation has suffered from fear for their children. The future is always unknown. There’s always been a looming future doom. The future of the climate is unprecedented, but so was the advent of the nuclear bomb. So was the advent of the trebuchet. So was the advent of steel.
The only certainty about the future is uncertainty. While absolutely terrifying, my view on it was even though it’s scary, I’ll give it a shot.
I do fear for my children’s future, but so has every human who ever had children. I enjoy the here and now and carry the hope that masses truly care for each other and always will.
Historically that hope doesn’t bear out but good for you, if not for your children.
You’re here. Is that not enough hope?
No, that’s fuckin dumb.
That’s a good point, I guess.
Why are you so upset all of a sudden? Are you ok?
Adding to that thought, you used to also have grandparents and elder family members who had the time and inclination to help out. This was especially true for those of us who were born to boomers. But now those people of that same age are having to work as things like greeters at Walmart just to be able to pay their own bills. So they don’t have the leisure time anymore to assist with raising grandchildren.
Or they just dont care and have conpletely different values. My parents arent even half the grandparents that their parents were.
Too expensive and career suicide.
I really, really dislike children
I have an amazing life, and the way I live is completely incompatible with kids, even if I wanted them
More people are realising that it’s not compulsory to breed, and that they can have vastly better lives without children
Sounds awesome. What do you do?
Fists people. But in all seriousness, it looks like their favorite thing to do is be a dick to people on Lemmy.
Probably best they stay away from children.
Only to stupid, or ignorant people
Oh, no way you just said that! No way, dude! I can’t believe you just said that!
Pretty much whatever I want to
A little over a year ago I picked up my whole life and moved somewhere I’d dreamed of living for some time. A decision I made in a couple of hours while I was enjoying a little break in Las Vegas.
I’ve changed career several times, I spend lot of time in nature with my dog, I do the things that make me happy, whenever I choose to do so
I volunteer in my community, try to do things that are of benefit to society, rather than consuming, just for its own sake
That is awesome. But how is this incompatible with kids?
They’d reduce my ability to do things on a whim
They’d reduce my free time
They’d reduce my finances
They’d reduce my will to live
Ah. It’s a you thing. Not a kids thing. Got it.
I stated clearly that I have an intense dislike for kids
They would add no value to my life
show proof and scientific studies or shut up liar
I know what you mean, but your queetion is incorrectly phrased
My personal reason is impossibly stressful, abusing, stealing and raping legal system and the society we face.
Otherwise I would have 10 kids
Nowadays, it’s expected and often necessary for both people in a relationship to work full-time and have a career if they want to maintain a decent living standard. No time or money for having kids.
I’m sure there are other factors too, but this is a big one for sure.
Just looking at my family, both my parents had a stay at home mom and 3 siblings. Me and all my cousins have at most 1 sibling, with both our parents working but we always had two grandmas that could watch us if needed.
Had I kept the same timetable as my parents, my hypothetical kids would have had not just both parents working full time, but all grandparents too!
I agree I suspect this is a big one. 100% two income families are going to have less kids, and less time, and more income (hence as countries get richer they have fewer children)
But a career is less and less a woman’s choice and more and more it’s a requirement.
If average families could get by on one income with a decent standard of living I’m sure more women would decide to stay at home or work part time. I know at least one that would anyway…
Economic.
Where it takes a young couple 80 hours of paid labor per week just to maintain a lower-middle class lifestyle, kids become an unaffordable luxury in a traditional family. When 40 hours of paid labor can comfortably support a family, that couple starts having kids.
UBI corrects the problem in multiple ways. It meets the basic needs of the family, so that their own income is immediately gainful.
UBI removes “starvation” as a motivation for labor. A drowning man will drag his wife, kids, and even his rescuers underwater with him, just for one more breath of air in his lungs. The desperate laborer will accept whatever pittance he is offered for his time, because that pittance is better than foregoing medical coverage, or the roof over his head, or enough food. In accepting that pittance, this desperate worker establishes the market value of labor, and drags down the compensation of everyone around him. A UBI relieves the majority of his desperation, and frees him to walk away from exploitative employers. That skinflint employer is forced to either offer a reasonable wage, or go out of business.
A UBI is a “Citizenship Dividend” - a payment for the use of Democratically-derived political powers. It is payment for the individual’s (compulsory) investment in his or her government, allowing that government to provide services to and collect taxes and fees from non-person, corporate entities on our behalf.
Here’s the thing: lower birth rates are actually a sign of a more developed country. There are a number of reasons for this. If you can’t be sure if the system will properly take care of you in your late years, people tend to have more children so that there will be someone to take care of them in old age. If people (especially women) are better educated, there will be more of a focus on persuing careers, and children can be an impediment to that. Also, if people have better access to healthcare and birth control, many will use it. Just a couple of examples.
THIS.
Lots of other comments talk about economic hardship. Yes, that’s part of the story, but there are very wealthy people in very wealthy countries who don’t have children. And there also are very poor people in very poor countries who have lots of children.
I guess the question I would ask is:
- If economic hardship is your theory, why do very poor people in very poor countries have lots of children?
So the story is not entirely about money. It’s also about the factors you mentioned.
Late stage capitalism.
When it is already hard to save up and buy a house before it’s too late for you and your partner to be capable of conceiving, is it any surprise?
I know plenty of people who would have a kid but don’t because they simply can’t afford to
Social pressure. Anywhere you go children are unwelcome.
Other than spaces specifically designated for children, you won’t exactly be encouraged to bring your kids. Most activities people find necessary or fun like workplace, entertainment, travel, parties, etc, are exclusive of children.
And it doesn’t work like that. “it takes a village to raise a child” as the saying goes. Raising children is not something that can be compartmentalized into a separate sphere of life, while you still perform all the activities you were used to or liked without them.
Add to that the cost of housing - you need to put those children somewhere - and you have the perfect storm.
This is a big one people don’t acknowledge. I think a big part of it is that we have also moved away from church (not a bad thing!)
When people talk about religious people having more kids, it’s not just quiverfull explanations! It’s that church people accept being around kids at social events. We (non church people) lost all of our childless friends within about two years of having a kid. The lifestyles were just incompatible and they weren’t ready to transition to daytime barbecues at the park. My church going sister? Kids are welcome at almost all of her social events, and she even attends women’s groups that have free childcare.
Obviously you can build that kind of community outside of church, but it’s not easy without the existing culture and infrastructure.
Lots of different reasons depending on the context of the person (lack of money, bleak future outlook, not wanting to pass down family trauma/bad genes etc)
Feminism/Equality and the changes it has brought.
This isn’t a bad thing, which is important to get out early because some far-right groups use it as an example for why we should wind back the clock.
Most women in advanced countries work, they have and want to have meaningful careers. Having children conflicts with that, in the immediate significant time off, and the long term impact of being the default parent when they have issues at school or are sick.
Lifestyles in advanced countries really rely on two incomes. Stopping work for a significant period to raise multiple children is a significant impact on that income, plus the long term expenses of the child combine to reduce that lifestyle. Not having children, or reducing the number, can be an economic choice.
The culture of both parents working also impacts the support network. Your working, your friends are working, the village is behind a desk not supporting you.
Finally women get a choice now, which is a change that is recent, isn’t global and doesn’t seem to be as widely acknowledged as it should be.
Society needs to change to address these issues and provide these missing supports. Which is going to take time, but as they are addressed we will probably see the birth rates start to climb again.
While I appreciate the optimism, I’m not sure that the historical data bears out that we will probably see the birthrates climb again when the supports are in place. This is a massive challenge for all of the Global North, but especially Japan, China, South Korea, and then all the way up in the “developed world.” Some where around Panama, Indonesia, or Myanmar is where you see the 2.1 replacement rate (from 2024 data), so something close to 100 countries below 2.1 TFR.
Bribes have been tried (as in one time payments for kids). Child Care coverage has been tried. Other structural changes (like the Nordic dual parent paternity leave, or even time shifted paternity leave like France and others).
Maybe you mean more than just economic and governmental supports. As Claudia Goldin has said “cultural changes around gender and women’s autonomy are the primary drivers of fertility decline, not just economic factors that policies might address”
This is why, as an American, I’m so confused about the anti-immigration bonanza happening. It’s not only against the American ethos, but shooting ourselves in the foot both economically and culturally. We need more people to make up for the future loss that is happening, and people from around the world have wanted to come. They pay for their worth in huge amounts (I’m already digressing so I won’t paste more journals and such on this), and what’s more if we want the economy to thrive and survive we need them… (Should we have a growth based economy is another question, that is worth asking, but again digression.)
Anyway, the point is Global North has tried and failed to address TFR, and no one has one that battle. Greater standard of living = lower TFR.
Online, parents are candid about how crappy parenting is.
We can see this and learn from it.
Multiple times, I have seen parents sympathizing with other parents who have such an overwhelming urge to shake their baby that they have to abandon the kid and go to another room.
As quality of life rises there are more things competing for peoples interest as well as the cost of large raising a child being very high. Like if you’re 25 and making money do you want to fly around the world creating experiences and having fun in the short term or do you want to save up your money to spend it all on your kids.
To increase births the recurring living costs need to go down, we need housing to ~20% rents or house prices. Maybe groceries down 10% and we’re probably see an increase. Public daycare’s becoming more common as well because that costs an arm and a leg.
The 25 year olds I know aren’t choosing between kids and travel, they’re choosing between kids and groceries… rent is too high to make it on one income, even for a lot of my college educated peers.
The fragmentation of multigenerational households. Without that support network, raising children is much harder and more expensive and much, much more daunting.
